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This sector may produce multibaggers over the next decade, says Santosh Kumar Singh of Motilal Oswal

Blog Blog Details
  • January 18, 2021
  • Santosh Singh|
  • Head of Research

The focus in Budget 2021 has tobe on driving growth given the economy has been in a consolidation phase for avery long period of time. Hence, I would focus on job creation and capitalformation, Santosh Kumar Singh of Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company saidin an interview to Moneycontrol s Sunil Shankar Matkar.

Edited excerpt:

Q) What areyour expectations from India Inc s Q3 earnings? Will the third quarterearnings give a proper indication about FY22 earnings season or should we waitfor Q4 earnings as well?

A) Thirdquarter earnings expectations are boosted by good festive demand and fastrecovery in the economy. Also, margins may remain elevated like Q2 given mostof the companies may have not reached normal cost levels. Technology companiesare expected to report good earnings given a sharp rebound in demand and upfronting of digital spending, which may lead to good growth for the next fewquarters. Commodities prices firmed up last quarter which can lead to sectorslike metals showing good earnings. Banks may also report good numbers given theimpact of COVID-19 is lower than what was expected earlier.

However, I would still want towait for Q4 to be sure if this is a trend or a one-off due to demand shootingup in the festive season. If it was pent up demand and economy is not as strongas we are thinking it is then Q4 numbers would start normalising.

 

Q) Nifty Bank index has risen 56 percent in the last three months andis now near its record high levels. Do you think the worst is over for thesector?

A) RBI Financial Stability Report(FSR) is suggesting that the NPLs may shoot up for the sector significantly. Alot of market participants are also forecasting the same. Hence, despite therecent rally a lot of deterioration in the credit quality is priced in most ofthe stocks barring a few. In my opinion, based on the data coming out fromcompanies and a sharp revival in the economy, we would see a deterioration inthe credit quality, but not to the extent highlighted in RBI FSR or by the marketparticipants. Also, barring a few stocks the valuation is still not very highand in some of the segments it is still very lucrative. Hence, I would expectthis segment to do well in the current year as well.

Q) What measures should the Finance Ministry take to reviveand strengthen the economy?

A) The focus in Budget 2021 hasto be on driving growth given the economy has been in a consolidation phase fora very long period of time. Hence, the focus should on job creation and capitalformation. For the last few years, we have seen lack of risk appetite fromcorporates to invest in any area which is asset-heavy. Hence, in order to drivethis, the focus would be to create a conducive environment for asset creation.Also, the first participant in infrastructure assets has to be the government.Also, manufacturing would be another area to focus on.

Q) What sectors could be in focus in the Budget?

A) As I said earlier, the focushas to be on capital formation and job creation and the key sectors are goingto be Infra, capital goods, manufacturing and real estate. Funding forincremental assets would need a very strong financial sector.

Q) Should investors prepare for a major correction from current levels?Also, do you expect the market to give double-digit returns in 2021?

A) I would not get intoforecasting Nifty levels or expected returns. However, broadly the rally hasbeen fuelled by three factors a) High global liquidity b) low-interest ratesand c) fast growth in earnings. In my view, earnings may not surprise too muchas we may remain in the upgrade cycle for at least few more quarters and theinterest rates may remain low as has been indicated by almost all the globalregulators. Hence, liquidity would be the only factor which can cause a sharpcorrection in the market. If liquidity falls significantly then it is possible.

Without getting into forecastingmarket levels, I expect the earnings growth to get broad-based. Hence, whatevermay happen to the market levels I would expect the stock performance to getbroad-based.

Q) Which sector/s can give multibagger returns by the end of2021 or in a couple of years?

A) Markets are going to be drivenby earnings and new themes which emerge over the year. We can see earningupgrade cycle continuing in cyclicals for some time also financial sector isanother sector where some of the large companies earnings have disappointed forthe better part of the last decade, hence, analysts are conservative inforecasting growth. These are the areas where in my view decent returns can be madein the next year. Also, we are yet to see much action in digital space givenlack of options, however next couple of years we may see multiple listings andthis is the segment of the market which may produce multiple multibaggers overthe next decade.

Q) Do you think it is still a buy on dips or the pattern has changed tosell on rallies?

A) We are long term investors andhence we try to avoid timing the market.

 

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investmentexpert on Moneycontrol.com are his own and not that of the website or itsmanagement. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified expertsbefore taking any investment decisions.

This article was originally published on Moneycontrol.com on 18th Jan,2021


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