Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. (MOAMC) is a public limited company incorporated under the Companies Act, 1956 on November 14, 2008, having its Registered Office at 10th Floor, Motilal Oswal Tower, Rahimtullah Sayani Road, Opposite Parel ST Depot, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 400025.
Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd. has been appointed as the Investment Manager to Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund by the Trustee vide Investment Management Agreement (IMA) dated May 21, 2009, executed between Motilal Oswal Trustee Company Ltd. and Motilal Oswal Asset Management Company Ltd.
Close

Value Strategy Newsletter - From the Desk of Shrey Loonker and Susmit Patodia

Blog Blog Details
  • June 26, 2019
  • Mr. Susmit Patodia|
  • Fund Manger - PMS

Dear Investors,

We are pleased to commence our REGULAR COMMUNICATION with you. We believe the time is opportune as we have just closed FY19 and the uncertainty of elections is behind us.

 

What we bring to you in this communiqué:

A) Performance Review of your portfolio

B) Re-iterating our investment philosophy (Q G L P) and style (Buy Right Sit Tight)

C) Key Insights on the Market in FY19

PERFORMANCE REVIEW OF YOUR PORTFOLIO

We are pleased to inform you that in the 4th Quarter of FY19, your portfolio earnings grew 26% YoY vs 15% for Nifty 50 Index. This is a marked improvement over the flat earnings growth in the first 9 Months of FY19. The changes that we have made over the last few months to your portfolio have started to bear fruit. The theme of the changes is enhancing the Quality and Earnings Growth of your portfolio. True to investing principles, this improvement in portfolio’s earnings is beginning to reflect in its returns as well. After 3 years of a tough ride, CY19 to-date, your portfolio has outperformed its benchmark, albeit marginally.


CY14

CY15

CY16

CY17

CY18

CY19 (Jan-May)

Since Inception

Value Strategy

57.56%

0.43%

2.89%

29.55%

-5.38%

9.92%

22.63%

Benchmark  (Nifty 50)

31.39%

-4.06%

3.67%

28.65%

3.15%

9.76%

16.46%

Alpha

26.17%

4.49%

-0.78%

0.90%

-8.53%

0.16%

6.17%







 

* CY: Calendar Year.

Calendar Year returns from 31st December 2013 to 31st December 2018. The above strategy returns are of a Model Client. Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. Returns below 1 year are absolute and above 1 year are annualized. Strategy returns shown above are post fees & expenses.


CY18 was a challenging year for the portfolio. Some of the very same stocks that gave us outsized alpha in CY14 led to the negative alpha in CY18. As Batman famously said – You either die a Hero or live long enough to see yourself become the villain! We continue to be vigilant on the companies we own.


HOW MACRO IMPACTED OUR PORTFOLIOCOMPANIES IN CY18

 

A)    Policy Measures – A flurry of policy measures (IBC, GST and now the continuing liquidity squeeze) hurt the earnings of a large set of companies in CY2018. Larger ticket discretionary spending was most impacted (e.g. Autos). We believe such policy measures dent the near-term earnings of the companies but substantially increase the long term earnings power of Quality Companies.

B)     (C)Rude Shock – It was too nice to us for too long! The 50% up-move in 2018 took everyone by surprise. In fact, in INR terms Crude was just 10% away from its all-time highs of 2013!  This Crude Shock led to a mini Balance of Payments crisis which in turn led to the Rupee depreciation, benefitting IT stocks. We continue to believe that the IT sector is at best a 10-12% earnings growth story. For instance, 2014-19 EPS CAGR of TCS is 11%. The dollar growth in FY19 for Infosys and TCS was 8% and 10%. We continue to have very little exposure to the IT sector companies.

RE-ITERATINGOUR INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY (Q G L P) ANDSTYLE (Buy Right Sit Tight)

 

Q G L P stands for

Q – Quality Companies – Quality Businesses run by Quality Managements

G – Growth in earnings and earnings capability

L – Longevity of Q and G

P – Reasonable Price


The above philosophy guides our behavior and not a benchmark’s constituents and weights. We do not think of Under-Weight, Over-Weight, Equal-Weight with respect to a benchmark. It is a freedom that we would like to thank you for giving us and a promise that we will not abuse it.


Buy Right Sit Tight means


BUY RIGHT simply means buying Q G L P stocks. This is not a one-time exercise, rather a continuous one, wherein, we re-assess and re-test our initial hypothesis at regular intervals. Only companies that conform to this test over the long-term, SIT TIGHT in our portfolios. Buying Right helps you stay for long, which in turn helps us leverage the long term power of compounding.


§  20% Compounded for 10 Years is 6x

§  20% Compounded for 20 Years is 38x 

§ 20% Compounded for 30 Years is 237x 

§ 20% Compounded for 50 Years is a STAGGERING 9000x 


So if you invest ONE Lakh for your kid as soon as she is born and the same compounds at 20%, it will turn to 91 Crores by the time she is 50! COMPOUNDING is THE EIGHTH WONDEROF THE WORLD. Most of us have not seen all the original seven but THIS ONE ISFOR ALL OF US TO LIVE WITH & ENJOY.


The example cited above is used to explain the concept of compounded returns and is for illustration purpose only and should not be used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party.


KEY INSIGHTS ON THEMARKETS IN FY19


A)    FY19 stands out as a unique year in the way the markets performed. During the year, Nifty gained 1510points (15%). Of this, over 1000 points (~2/3rd) were from just 5 stocks – Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, Infosys, TCS and Hindustan Unilever. Such narrow attribution has not been seen in the last decade. It is interesting to note here that Reliance FY19 EPS grew 9.5% while Infosys was flat! This implies their stock returns were a result of PE re-rating - Change in perception towards these companies and/or flight to relative certainty.

B)    It was also the first time in the last decade that each of the largest 5 companies by market cap out performed the benchmark.

The above two observations are critical to understand and assimilate. Such polarization and narrowness of the market pose a significant challenge for active fund managers.

 

We expect market returns to become broad-based in due course of time. With this, your portfolio returns should at least sustain its current pace, if not accelerate, given the robust earnings growth that we estimate.


BEST WISHES AND WARM REGARDS

Shrey Loonker and Susmit Patodia 


Disclaimer: *Earnings as of March 2019 quarter and market prices as on 31st May 2019; Source: Bloomberg consensus, Capitaline and Internal Analysis. The above strategy returns are of a Model Client as on 31st May 2019. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments. Motilal Oswal AMC does not provide any guarantee/ assurance any minimum or maximum returns. Investment insecurities is subject to market and other risks and there is no assurance or guarantee that the objectives of any of the strategies of Portfolio Management Services will be achieved.





Share this articles
  • FB Comments
  • Comments without login
Facebook comments not available
Newsletter
+91-22 40548002 | 8108622222
Site best viewed in IE 9.0+, Mozila Firefox 4.0+ and Google Chrome at 1024 x 768 pixels resolution Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Feedback | Subscribe our rss feed | Voting Policy | Sitemap